What is expected value in betting?
Expected value is the average profit or loss a bet would produce if it were repeated many times under identical conditions. A positive EV bet makes money over the long run even though any individual bet can lose.
Expected value calculator
Free, no signup. Last updated 15 August 2026.
Expected value is what a bet is worth on average if you could place it endlessly. Enter your own estimate of the chance, the price on offer and your stake, and the calculator shows whether the bet makes money over time.
Expected value
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EV as % of stake
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Your edge
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Fair odds for your estimate
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The formula
Expected value is the profit when you win multiplied by the chance of winning, minus the stake multiplied by the chance of losing:
EV = (probability × (stake × (odds − 1))) − ((1 − probability) × stake)
A €10 bet at odds of 2.00 on something you rate a 55 percent chance has an EV of plus €1. That single bet either wins €10 or loses €10; the €1 is what it is worth on average across many repetitions of the same situation.
Why the estimate is the hard part
The formula is trivial. Everything rests on the probability you feed it, and that is where bettors deceive themselves. If you inflate your estimate by five percentage points on every bet, this calculator will show positive EV all day while your bankroll shrinks. The honest test is whether you consistently beat the closing line, because that is the market's best estimate and it is not flattering itself.
Frequently asked questions
How do I calculate EV on a bet?
Multiply your estimated probability by the profit if it wins, then subtract the chance of losing multiplied by the stake. With a 55 percent estimate, odds of 2.00 and a €10 stake: 0.55 × €10 minus 0.45 × €10, which is plus €1.
Is positive expected value a guarantee?
No. EV describes the average across many bets, not the result of one. A positive EV bet still loses whenever the outcome goes against you, and long losing runs are normal even with a genuine edge.
Where do I get the probability from?
From your own model, your research, or a sharper market than the one you are betting into. If your only source is the price you are betting on, you have no edge to measure and EV cannot help you.
We do this maths on every pick
Three value picks a day in the free Telegram, each published with its price and stake, and every one of them ends up on the public record.
Join the free Telegram →18+. These tools are for information only. Betting involves risk and any bet can lose. Nothing here is financial advice.
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