What win rate do I need to break even in betting?
Divide 1 by the decimal odds. At 2.00 you need 50 percent, at 1.90 you need 52.6 percent, at 1.50 you need 66.7 percent. Anything below that line loses money no matter how it feels.
Break-even win rate
Free, no signup. Last updated 15 August 2026.
Every price carries a hit rate you must clear before you make a single cent. Enter the odds to see that break-even line, then add the win rate you actually achieve to see what it turns into over a season.
Break-even win rate
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Your ROI at that win rate
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Margin above break-even
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Per 100 bets of 1 unit
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The number behind the price
Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ decimal odds × 100
At odds of 2.00 you need to win half your bets to stand still. At 1.50 you need two out of three. At 1.20, which looks like a near-certainty, you need to win more than 83 percent of the time, and one loss wipes out five winners.
This is why hit rate on its own says nothing about whether someone is any good. A tipster winning 70 percent of their bets at average odds of 1.30 is losing money. One winning 40 percent at 3.00 is making it hand over fist.
What a small margin is worth
ROI = (win rate × decimal odds) − 1
Clearing the break-even line by three or four percentage points is a real, professional-grade edge. At odds of 1.90, break-even is 52.6 percent; winning 56 percent of the time is an ROI of 6.4 percent, which over 500 bets of one unit is plus 32 units. The gap between losing slowly and winning well is smaller than most people imagine, and it is entirely made of discipline.
| Odds | Break-even | Win rate for +5% ROI |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | 83.3% | 87.5% |
| 1.50 | 66.7% | 70.0% |
| 1.90 | 52.6% | 55.3% |
| 2.50 | 40.0% | 42.0% |
| 4.00 | 25.0% | 26.3% |
Frequently asked questions
Is a 60 percent win rate good?
It depends entirely on the odds. At average odds of 1.50 a 60 percent win rate loses money, because break-even there is 66.7 percent. At average odds of 2.00 the same 60 percent is an ROI of 20 percent, which would be exceptional.
Why do bookmakers show odds of 1.91 so often?
Two sides priced at 1.91 each imply 52.4 percent, adding to 104.8 percent. That extra 4.8 percent is the margin, and it is exactly why break-even sits above 50 percent on a coin-flip market.
How much better than break-even is realistic?
Three to eight percentage points above the break-even line, sustained over hundreds of bets, is a strong edge. Anyone claiming to double the break-even rate is describing a small sample or not counting the losers.
We do this maths on every pick
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